This research aims to analyze the climatic changes Lattakia region, Syria and determine general trend of this change by analyzing the time series of the temperature and precipitation in Lattakia during the period (1960–2021), by applying the Mann-Kendall equation, It was found through the analysis of climatic data; The general trend of maximum and minimum temperatures is a significant (P < 0.05) increasing trend in the selected climatic stations, as it was found that the general trend of precipitation was around the average with a confidence level 95%. Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI)) were derived from satellite images. The calculated spectral indicators showed an increase in the fire risk during the studied period in conjunction with a clear decrease in the NDMI and NDVI indicators. The linear correlation coefficient (pearson) was also analyzed between the calculated Normalized Burn Ratio index and temperatures (dry, maximum, and minimum) and precipitation in the studied regions.
The results showed a strong correlation between the Normalized Burn Ratio index and the precipitation, and this correlation was inversely and significant; Which indicates an increase in the fire risk with the increasing drought conditions in study region. Linear regression analysis was also used; Which highlighted the most important role of the minimum temperature in the fires spread in Lattakia region.
