Abstract

Timber price trends provide economic information for forest management and wood utilization decision making, yet to our knowledge, no comprehensive examination of Ohio timber price data has been conducted. Stumpage prices reported biannually from 1960 to 2011 (dollars per thousand board feet, Doyle) for the 10 commercial hardwood species of Ohio were obtained from the Ohio Timber Price Report. Average annual percentage rates of change were determined using log-linear modeling, which included testing and accounting for serial correlation of the residuals. The real price data of each species (1982 dollars) were further examined for differing trend lines between the periods 1960 to 1985 and 1986 to 2011. Nominal prices have been increasing annually between 3.57 percent for basswood (Tilia americana) and 6.13 percent for cherry (Prunus serotina). Real price rates of change were lowest for basswood, −0.25 percent, and highest for cherry, 2.19 percent. The species separated into three groups based on trend line intercept (initial price) and/or slope (rate of price change) differences between the two eras. No differences were observed between eras for cherry, hard and soft maple (Acer spp), hickory (Carya spp.), walnut (Juglans nigra), and yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera). Basswood prices in the second era were changing at a significantly lower rate than in the first era. Distinct trend lines were found between eras for ash (Fraxinus spp.), and red and white oak (Quercus spp.). Initial prices for the three were significantly higher in the second era, while rates of price change were significantly lower in the second era.

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