Richard Murnane, Judith Singer, and John Willett analyze data from a larger study on the factors influencing career paths of teachers, focusing specifically on the career paths of White teachers in North Carolina who were first hired between 1976 and 1978. Using methodology known as "hazards modeling," the authors explore the relationship between the risk of leaving teaching, on the one hand, and teacher salary and opportunity cost, on the other hand. By employing hazards models, they are able to examine simultaneously various predictors of risk of leaving teaching — gender, National Teacher Examination (NTE)score, subject specialty, and the level of teaching (elementary or secondary) — and to determine whether the effects of these predictors remain constant or vary across teachers' careers. The authors conclude by discussing implications for policy and for teacher supply and demand models.

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