ABSTRACT -157
Oil spills occur due to several causes such as shipwrecks, pipeline rupture etc., In most cases during shipwrecks and collision, the release time of the pollutant is not known. There will be uncertainty in the preliminary information such as the release time of the pollutant, quantity released or lost, the type of spill viz, continuous, or instantaneous. The pollutant release time is crucial in deciding whether the drift is towards or away from the shore. To manage this uncertainty in spill release time, trajectory ensembling technique is adopted to simulate oil drifts from Merchant Vessel X Press vessel. The trajectories (members) generated for a particular period were ensembled using statistical tools such as mean and aggregation operators.