A Simulation Model to Predict Spill-Induced Bird Mortality Using Beached Carcass Data

Beached bird models have been used to estimate spill induced bird mortality as a function of carcass recovery. The basic models generate defensible estimates given the sparse data generally associated with large, infrequently searched, areas. We have extended the model to address spills of limited geographic extent and intense recovery effort. Our model simulates the number of carcasses required to re-create the vector of carcasses actually collected. Each simulation generates a single estimate of mortality consistent with carcass recovery data. Monte Carlo methods facilitate a mean mortality estimate.