ABSTRACT

Yang, B.; Zhao, Z., and Zheng, G., 2020. The relevance analysis of regulation clarity degree and human error contribution to ship collision accidents. In: Yang, D.F. and Wang, H. (eds.), Recent Advances in Marine Geology and Environmental Oceanography. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 108, pp. 32–36. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

Analyzed in this paper is the correlation between the risk degree of the human risk factor in collision accidents at sea and the clarity degree of regulations related to the risk factor. The risk degree of each factor is analyzed based on the fuzzy rule-based Fine-Kinney method. The defuzzification contribution value of each risk factor to collision accidents is obtained. The confidence value in a priori algorithms of each human risk factor in accidents is obtained by mining the data of 481 accidents in the Liaoning sea area from 2005 to 2014. Nine experts score the clarity degree of the management regulations which are relevant to each risk factor. And the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weight value of each factor's clarity is calculated by the AHP. The AHP weight values cannot express the clarity degree, but they are approximately equal to one in a million of evaluation scores in the Fine-Kinney method whose score can express the clarity degree. Then the AHP weight values, instead of Fine-Kinney scores of the clarity degrees, are compared with the fuzzy rule-based Fine-Kinney defuzzification contribution values and the a priori algorithm confidence values of the human risk factors in collisions, respectively. The AHP weight values are a negative linear correlation with the defuzzification values and confidence values. This demonstrates that the more clarified the relevant regulations are, the lower the risk of the human factor in ship collision avoidance operation will be.

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