Shoreline change rates of Point Pelee National Park, Ontario are estimated for the period 1959–2004 using orthoair photos. The eastern side of the park had varying recession regardless of Lake Erie water-level changes, especially in Northeast Beach, where it averaged −3.14 m/y. The western side of the park generally exhibited accretion and had an inverse relationship with Lake Erie water levels. Longer duration of ice coverage during winter, favourable topography, and sedimentary conditions led to the observed difference in shoreline response. Future climate change patterns are expected to result in lower lake levels and less winter ice coverage, both of which will likely result in a net loss to the park's land habitat.