Aangri, A.; Hakkou, M.; Krien, Y., and Benmohammadi, A., 2022. Predicting shoreline change for the Agadir and Taghazout coasts (Morocco). Journal of Coastal Research, 38(5), 937–950. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

Prediction of the long-term shoreline change under the effect of natural and anthropogenic factors is a fundamental goal for coastal managers. This paper presents a simple model for predicting the shoreline change for the Agadir and Taghazout coasts, which consist of several sandy beaches, in the horizons 2050 and 2100; this coastal area plays a vital economic role in this region. The anticipation of its protection against erosion is necessary in view of the effects of climate change, and it will preserve its potential for tourism and urban development in the long term through the establishment of the construction setback line. The approach proposed here combines the long-term extrapolations of historical shoreline changes (1969–2020) in the future, and the estimate of the shoreline retreat due to sea level rise (SLR) by using Bruun's rule, using the severe RCP 8.5 scenario, and taking into account the contribution of vertical land movements. The model used has been calibrated through incorporating a correction factor (F), calculated by comparing observed and predicted data over a long period. The analysis of the predictions results provided in this work showing a potential risk of erosion threatening all seaside tourist and urban infrastructures along this coast. The average retreat is estimated at 12 m by 2050 and 51 m by 2100.

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