ABSTRACT

Wang, F.; Tian, Y., and Xiong, L., 2019. Climate change scenarios and implications for marine system sustainability. In: Gong, D.; Zhu, H., and Liu, R. (eds.), Selected Topics in Coastal Research: Engineering, Industry, Economy, and Sustainable Development. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 94, pp. 55–59. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

Strengthening climate change scenario research is a prerequisite for reducing the impact of climate change on the marine system. This paper systematically reviews the evolution of climate change scenarios from three aspects: its meaning, main characteristics and application. The results show that: (1) Different climate scenarios have played an important role in previous IPCC assessment reports. Special report on emission scenario (SRES) reduce the difference of climate simulation results among different research teams. Representative concentration path (RCP) scenarios strengthen the reference role of emission scenarios for researchers and decision makers in research and response to climate change. Shared socioeconomic path (SSP) scenarios integrate climate policy and socio-economic scenarios to better meet climate change. Research group needs of response, adaptation and vulnerability; (2) Scenario generation technology has gone through three stages of historical data space-time analogy, serial development and parallel development, the improvement of which shortens the development cycle and enhances the consistency of results; (3) The difference of different scenarios is reflected in the characteristics and applications of scenarios, and links the mapping between SRS, RCP and SSP scenarios.

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