ABSTRACT

Gao, C.; Zheng, C.W.; Zhang, G.; Han, Y.; Tian, F.; Liu, X.; Wang, L.; Zhang, D., and Xiao, Z., 2020. Long-term projection of wind potential in the China seas. In: Zheng, C.W.; Wang, Q.; Zhan, C., and Yang, S.B. (eds.), Air-Sea Interaction and Coastal Environments of the Maritime and Polar Silk Roads. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 99, pp. 396–403. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.

This study conducts the mid-long term predictions and assesses the multi-year average offshore wind energy in the China seas for the next five years based on CMIP5 wind data, in hope of providing reference for the long term prediction of wind energy. Results show that (1) large areas with multi-year average wind power densities (WPD) greater than 350 W/m2 are mainly found throughout the Ryukyu Islands and the Taiwan and Luzon Straits in the southeastern area of the Indo-China Peninsula. (2) From 2015-2019, the WPD in the Bohai Sea, Taiwan Strait and Beibu Gulf will be lower than the multi-year average level and thus will be similar to the multi-year average in the Yellow Sea and Gulf of Thailand but greater than the multi-year average in the East China Sea and South China Sea. (3) The predicted occurrences of exploitable wind speeds of the East China Sea and South China Sea are promising for the next five years, exceeding 60%. A value above 40% is predicted for the Yellow Sea, and a lower value is anticipated for the Bohai Sea. (4) The predicted occurrences of WPD > 50 W/m2 are more promising for the next five years.

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