Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the main foodborne pathogen of acute gastroenteritis in the world. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was conducted to evaluate the health risk caused by V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish in the costal cities of east China. The QMRA framework was established from shellfish at retail through cooking at home to consumption. The prevalence and concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish, cooking methods, storage temperature and time after purchase, shellfish consumption frequency and consumption amount were analyzed in the exposure assessment. The results of the exposure assessment were introduced into the Beta-Poisson dose response model, and Monte Carlo analysis was used to calculate the risk of gastroenteritis caused by shellfish consumption. The results showed that the probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus due to shellfish consumption per person per year (Pill,yr) was 3.49E-05. There were seasonal differences in the Pill/meal, the maximum Pill/meal was 4.81E-06 in summer, and the minimum Pill/meal was 2.27E-07 in winter. The sensitivity analysis showed that the concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish and the consumption per meal were main factors contributing to the illness. This QMRA provided valuable information such as the probability of illness associated with the consumption of shellfish and it also provided references for prevention strategies and control standards of V. parahaemolyticus in shellfish.

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