Effective measures for controlling chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of cervids, remain elusive. We review theoretic relationships between predation and host-parasite dynamics and describe a mathematical model to evaluate the potential influence of random removal through harvest or culling and selective predation by wolves (Canis lupus) upon CWD dynamics in deer (Odocoileus spp.) populations. Imposing nonselective mortality representing a 15% annual harvest or cull 51 yr after CWD introduction lowered both deer population size and steady state CWD. Selective (4×) mortality at the same 15% predation rate caused a more modest reduction in deer population size accompanied by a relatively rapid decline in CWD prevalence and elimination of the disease from a closed population. The impacts of selective predation on epidemic dynamics were sensitive to assumptions on parameter estimates; however, within expected ranges, the results of selective predation were consistent and robust. We suggest that as CWD distribution and wolf range overlap in the future, wolf predation may suppress disease emergence or limit prevalence.
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Epidemiology|
January 01 2011
THE ROLE OF PREDATION IN DISEASE CONTROL: A COMPARISON OF SELECTIVE AND NONSELECTIVE REMOVAL ON PRION DISEASE DYNAMICS IN DEER
Margaret A. Wild;
Margaret A. Wild
5
1 National Park Service, Biological Resource Management Division, 1201 Oak Ridge Drive, Suite 200, Fort Collins, Colorado 80525, USA
5 Corresponding author (email: [email protected])
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N. Thompson Hobbs;
N. Thompson Hobbs
2 Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1499, USA
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Mark S. Graham;
Mark S. Graham
1 National Park Service, Biological Resource Management Division, 1201 Oak Ridge Drive, Suite 200, Fort Collins, Colorado 80525, USA
4 Current address: National Park Service, New River Gorge National River, PO Box 246, 104 Main Street, Glen Jean, West Virginia 25846, USA
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Michael W. Miller
Michael W. Miller
3 Colorado Division of Wildlife, Wildlife Research Center, 317 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, Colorado 80526-2097, USA
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J Wildl Dis (2011) 47 (1): 78–93.
Article history
Received:
December 04 2009
Accepted:
October 07 2010
Citation
Margaret A. Wild, N. Thompson Hobbs, Mark S. Graham, Michael W. Miller; THE ROLE OF PREDATION IN DISEASE CONTROL: A COMPARISON OF SELECTIVE AND NONSELECTIVE REMOVAL ON PRION DISEASE DYNAMICS IN DEER. J Wildl Dis 1 January 2011; 47 (1): 78–93. doi: https://doi.org/10.7589/0090-3558-47.1.78
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