Relationship of Rotterdam Peanut Prices to U. S. Peanut Production¹

In the 1980s exports of peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) from the United States ranged from 228,000 mt to 473,000 mt making up nearly 20% of the total U.S. production. The European Community was the largest importer of U. S. peanuts with Argentina and China the major U. S. competitors for peanut imports. Edible peanut prices quoted in Rotterdam are recognized as world reference prices in the peanut trade. From 1978 to 1990 monthly prices of U. S. 40/50 shelled peanuts in Rotterdam ranged from $600/mt to $2,100/mt. A change of $100/mt in the Rotterdam price results in an estimated change in the value of U. S. farmers' stock peanuts of $66/mt. Rotterdam prices are sensitive to monthly estimates of peanut production in the southeastern U. S. There is a critical southeast production threshold of about 1.0 mil mt, below which Rotterdam prices increase $125/mt for a decrease of 50,000 mt in production. Above the level of production, the price changed $51/mt for each 50,000 mt change in production. The Rotterdam price is an important barometer for domestic prices for additional peanuts produced by U. S. peanut farmers.