Jacob, P., Bogdanova, T. I., Buglova, E., Chepurniy, M., Demidchik, Y., Gavrilin, Y., Kenigsberg, J., Meckbach, R., Schotola, C., Shinkarev, S., Tronko, M. D., Ulanovsky, A., Vavilov, S. and Walsh, L. Thyroid Cancer Risk in Areas of Ukraine and Belarus Affected by the Chernobyl Accident. Radiat. Res. 165, 1–8 (2006).
The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the 131I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968– 1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990–2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 104 PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was −0.145 (95% CI: −0.171; −0.119) cases per 104 PY-Gy2. The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy−1; for the quadratic coefficient, it was −1.03 (95% CI: −1.46; −0.60) Gy−2. The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.