The present paper reviews the uncertainties and errors in complex dosimetry systems that were developed to estimate individual doses in different post-Chernobyl (Chornobyl) radiation epidemiology studies among the general population and the cleanup workers. These uncertainties and errors are associated with (i) instrumental radiation measurements of humans and environmental samples, (ii) inherent uncertainties arising from the stochastic random variability of the parameters used in exposure assessment and from a lack of knowledge about the true values of the parameters, and (iii) human factor uncertainties due to poor memory recall resulting in incomplete, inaccurate, or missing responses during personal interview with study subjects conducted long after exposure. Relative measurement errors of 131I thyroid activity associated with devices for measuring radioactivity in the thyroid reached up to 0.86 (coefficient of variation). The inherent uncertainty in estimates of individual doses varied between different studies and exposure pathways (GSD from 1.2 to 15 for model-based doses and from 1.3 to 5.1 for measurement-based doses). The human factor uncertainties can cause individual doses to be underestimated or overestimated by an average of 10 times for model-based doses and 2 times for measurement-based doses calculated for the general population and up to 3 times for doses calculated for cleanup workers. The sources of errors and uncertainties, especially the human factor uncertainties, should be carefully considered in dose assessment for radiation epidemiological studies, with particular attention to studies involving persons without instrumental radiation measurements.
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May 2023
REVIEW ARTICLES|
March 07 2023
Assessment of Uncertainties and Errors in Post-Chernobyl Dosimetry
Vladimir Drozdovitch;
Vladimir Drozdovitch
1
a Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland
1 Address for correspondence: 9609 Medical Center Drive, Room 7E548 MSC 9778, Bethesda, MD 20892-9778, USA; e-mail: [email protected].
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Sergii Masiuk;
Sergii Masiuk
b State Institution – National Research Center for Radiation Medicine of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
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Victor Kryuchkov;
Victor Kryuchkov
c Consultant to the U.S. National Cancer Institute
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Victor Minenko;
Victor Minenko
d Institute for Nuclear Problems, Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus
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Konstantin Chizhov;
Konstantin Chizhov
a Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland
c Consultant to the U.S. National Cancer Institute
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Mykola Chepurny;
Mykola Chepurny
b State Institution – National Research Center for Radiation Medicine of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
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Tatiana Kukhta;
Tatiana Kukhta
e United Institute of Informatics Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus
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Ivan Golovanov;
Ivan Golovanov
c Consultant to the U.S. National Cancer Institute
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Elena Bakhanova;
Elena Bakhanova
b State Institution – National Research Center for Radiation Medicine of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
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Vadim Chumak
Vadim Chumak
b State Institution – National Research Center for Radiation Medicine of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
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Radiat Res (2023) 199 (5): 517–531.
Article history
Received:
August 01 2022
Accepted:
February 21 2023
Citation
Vladimir Drozdovitch, Sergii Masiuk, Victor Kryuchkov, Victor Minenko, Konstantin Chizhov, Mykola Chepurny, Tatiana Kukhta, Ivan Golovanov, Elena Bakhanova, Vadim Chumak; Assessment of Uncertainties and Errors in Post-Chernobyl Dosimetry. Radiat Res 1 May 2023; 199 (5): 517–531. doi: https://doi.org/10.1667/RADE-22-00138.1
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