Childhood cancer five-year survival now exceeds 70–80%. Childhood exposure to radiation is a known thyroid carcinogen; however, data are limited for the evaluation of radiation dose-response at high doses, modifiers of the dose-response relationship and joint effects of radiotherapy and chemotherapy. To address these issues, we pooled two cohort and two nested case-control studies of childhood cancer survivors including 16,757 patients, with 187 developing primary thyroid cancer. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for thyroid cancer by treatment with alkylating agents, anthracyclines or bleomycin were 3.25 (0.9–14.9), 4.5 (1.4–17.8) and 3.2 (0.8–10.4), respectively, in patients without radiotherapy, and declined with greater radiation dose (RR trends, P = 0.02, 0.12 and 0.01, respectively). Radiation dose-related RRs increased approximately linearly for <10 Gy, leveled off at 10–15-fold for 10–30 Gy and then declined, but remained elevated for doses >50 Gy. The fitted RR at 10 Gy was 13.7 (95% CI: 8.0–24.0). Dose-related excess RRs increased with decreasing age at exposure ( P < 0.01), but did not vary with attained age or time-since-exposure, remaining elevated 25+ years after exposure. Gender and number of treatments did not modify radiation effects. Thyroid cancer risks remained elevated many decades following radiotherapy, highlighting the need for continued follow up of childhood cancer survivors.

The thyroid gland of children is especially vulnerable to the carcinogenic action of ionizing radiation. To provide insights into various modifying influences on risk, seven major studies with organ doses to individual subjects were evaluated. Five cohort studies (atomic bomb survivors, children treated for tinea capitis, two studies of children irradiated for enlarged tonsils, and infants irradiated for an enlarged thymus gland) and two case-control studies (patients with cervical cancer and childhood cancer) were studied. The combined studies include almost 120,000 people (approximately 58,000 exposed to a wide range of doses and 61,000 nonexposed subjects), nearly 700 thyroid cancers and 3,000,000 person years of follow-up. For persons exposed to radiation before age 15 years, linearity best described the dose response, even down to 0.10 Gy. At the highest doses (>10 Gy), associated with cancer therapy, there appeared to be a decrease or leveling of risk. For childhood exposures, the pooled excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) was 7.7 (95% CI = 2.1, 28.7) and the excess absolute risk per 10 4 PY Gy (EAR/10 4 PY Gy) was 4.4 (95% CI = 1.9, 10.1). The attributable risk percent (AR%) at 1 Gy was 88%. However, these summary estimates were affected strongly by age at exposure even within this limited age range. The ERR was greater ( P = 0.07) for females than males, but the findings from the individual studies were not consistent. The EAR was higher among women, reflecting their higher rate of naturally occurring thyroid cancer. The distribution of ERR over time followed neither a simple multiplicative nor an additive pattern in relation to background occurrence. Only two cases were seen within 5 years of exposure. The ERR began to decline about 30 years after exposure but was still elevated at 40 years. Risk also decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure, with little risk apparent after age 20 years. Based on limited data, there was a suggestion that spreading dose over time (from a few days to >1 year) may lower risk, possibly due to the opportunity for cellular repair mechanisms to operate. The thyroid gland in children has one of the highest risk coefficients of any organ and is the only tissue with convincing evidence for risk at about 0.10 Gy.

The thyroid gland is one of the most radiosensitive human organs. While it is well known that radiation exposure increases the risk of thyroid cancer, less is known about its effects in relation to non-malignant thyroid diseases. The aim of this review is to evaluate the effects of high- and low-dose radiation on benign structural and functional diseases of the thyroid. We examined the results of major studies from cancer patients treated with high-dose radiotherapy or thyrotoxicosis patients treated with high doses of iodine-131, patients treated with moderate- to high-dose radiotherapy for benign diseases, persons exposed to low doses from environmental radiation, and survivors of the atomic bombings who were exposed to a range of doses. We evaluated radiation effects on structural (tumors, nodules), functional (hyper- and hypothyroidism), and autoimmune thyroid diseases. After a wide range of doses of ionizing radiation, an increased risk of thyroid adenomas and nodules was observed in a variety of populations and settings. The dose response appeared to be linear at low to moderate doses, but in one study there was some suggestion of a reduction in risk above 5 Gy. The elevated risk for benign tumors continues for decades after exposure. Considerably less consistent findings are available regarding functional thyroid diseases including autoimmune diseases. In general, associations for these outcomes were fairly weak, and significant radiation effects were most often observed after high doses, particularly for hypothyroidism. A significant radiation dose–response relationship was demonstrated for benign nodules and follicular adenomas. The effects of radiation on functional thyroid diseases are less clear, partly due to the greater difficulties encountered in studying these diseases.

Exposure to radioactive iodine ( 131 I) from atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in Nevada in the 1950s may have increased thyroid cancer risks. To investigate the long-term effects of this exposure, we analyzed data on thyroid cancer incidence (18,545 cases) from eight Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) tumor registries for the period 1973–2004. Excess relative risks (ERR) per gray (Gy) for exposure received before age 15 were estimated by relating age-, birth year-, sex- and county-specific thyroid cancer rates to estimates of cumulative dose to the thyroid that take age into account. The estimated ERR per Gy for dose received before 1 year of age was 1.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.5–3.2]. There was no evidence that this estimate declined with follow-up time or that risk increased with dose received at ages 1–15. These results confirm earlier findings based on less extensive data for the period 1973–1994. The lack of a dose response for those exposed at ages 1–15 is inconsistent with studies of children exposed to external radiation or 131 I from the Chernobyl accident, and results need to be interpreted in light of limitations and biases inherent in ecological studies, including the error in doses and case ascertainment resulting from migration. Nevertheless, the study adds support for an increased risk of thyroid cancer due to fallout, although the data are inadequate to quantify it.

Sigurdson, A. J., Land, C. E., Bhatti, P., Pineda, M., Brenner, A., Carr, Z., Gusev, B. I., Zhumadilov, Z., Simon, S. L., Bouville, A., Rutter, J. L., Ron, E. and Struewing, J. P. Thyroid Nodules, Polymorphic Variants in DNA Repair and RET -Related Genes, and Interaction with Ionizing Radiation Exposure from Nuclear Tests in Kazakhstan. Radiat. Res. 171, 77–88 (2009). Risk factors for thyroid cancer remain largely unknown except for ionizing radiation exposure during childhood and a history of benign thyroid nodules. Because thyroid nodules are more common than thyroid cancers and are associated with thyroid cancer risk, we evaluated several polymorphisms potentially relevant to thyroid tumors and assessed interaction with ionizing radiation exposure to the thyroid gland. Thyroid nodules were detected in 1998 by ultrasound screening of 2997 persons who lived near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan when they were children (1949–1962). Cases with thyroid nodules ( n = 907) were frequency matched (1:1) to those without nodules by ethnicity (Kazakh or Russian), gender and age at screening. Thyroid gland radiation doses were estimated from fallout deposition patterns, residence history and diet. We analyzed 23 polymorphisms in 13 genes and assessed interaction with ionizing radiation exposure using likelihood ratio tests (LRT). Elevated thyroid nodule risks were associated with the minor alleles of RET S836S (rs1800862, P = 0.03) and GFRA1 −193C>G (rs not assigned, P = 0.05) and decreased risk with XRCC1 R194W (rs1799782, P trend = 0.03) and TGFB1 T263I (rs1800472, P = 0.009). Similar patterns of association were observed for a small number of papillary thyroid cancers ( n = 25). Ionizing radiation exposure to the thyroid gland was associated with significantly increased risk of thyroid nodules (age and gender adjusted excess odds ratio/Gy = 0.30, 95% CI 0.05–0.56), with evidence for interaction by genotype found for XRCC1 R194W (LRT P value = 0.02). Polymorphisms in RET signaling, DNA repair and proliferation genes may be related to risk of thyroid nodules, consistent with some previous reports on thyroid cancer. Borderline support for gene-radiation interaction was found for a variant in XRCC1, a key base excision repair protein. Other pathways such as genes in double-strand break repair, apoptosis and genes related to proliferation should also be pursued.

Romanenko, A. Ye., Finch, S. C., Hatch, M., Lubin, J. H., Bebeshko, V. G., Bazyka, D. A., Gudzenko, N., Dyagil, I. S., Reiss, R. F., Bouville, A., Chumak, V. V., Trotsiuk, N. K., Babkina, N. G., Belyayev, Yu., Masnyk, I., Ron, E., Howe, G.;thR. and Zablotska, L. B. The Ukrainian-American Study of Leukemia and Related Disorders among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers from Ukraine: III. Radiation Risks. Radiat. Res. 170, 711–720 (2008). Leukemia is one of the cancers most susceptible to induction by ionizing radiation, but the effects of lower doses delivered over time have not been quantified adequately. After the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident in Ukraine in April 1986, several hundred thousand workers who were involved in cleaning up the site and its surroundings received fractionated exposure, primarily from external γ radiation. To increase our understanding of the role of protracted low-dose radiation exposure in the etiology of leukemia, we conducted a nested case-control study of leukemia in a cohort of cleanup workers identified from the Chornobyl State Registry of Ukraine. The analysis is based on 71 cases of histologically confirmed leukemia diagnosed in 1986–2000 and 501 age- and residence-matched controls selected from the same cohort. Study subjects or their proxies were interviewed about their cleanup activities and other relevant factors. Individual bone marrow radiation doses were estimated by the RADRUE dose reconstruction method (mean dose = 76.4 mGy, SD = 213.4). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate leukemia risks. The excess relative risk (ERR) of total leukemia was 3.44 per Gy [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47–9.78, P < 0.01]. The dose response was linear and did not differ significantly by calendar period of first work in the 30-km Chornobyl zone, duration or type of work. We found a similar dose–response relationship for chronic and non-chronic lymphocytic leukemia [ERR = 4.09 per Gy (95% CI < 0–14.41) and 2.73 per Gy (95% CI < 0–13.50), respectively]. To further clarify these issues, we are extending the case-control study to ascertain cases for another 6 years (2001–2006).

Bhatti, P., Doody, M. M., Preston, D. L., Kampa, D., Ron, E., Weinstock, R. W., Simon, S., Edwards, A. A. and Sigurdson, A. J. Increased Frequency of Chromosome Translocations Associated with Diagnostic X-Ray Examinations. Radiat. Res. 170, 149–155 (2008). Informative studies of cancer risks associated with medical radiation are difficult to conduct owing to low radiation doses, poor recall of diagnostic X rays, and long intervals before cancers occur. Chromosome aberrations have been associated with increased cancer risk and translocations are a known radiation biomarker. Seventy-nine U.S. radiologic technologists were selected for blood collection, and translocations were enumerated by whole chromosome painting. We developed a dose score to the red bone marrow for medical radiation exposure from X-ray examinations reported by the technologists that they received as patients. Using Poisson regression, we analyzed translocations in relation to the dose scores. Each dose score unit approximated 1 mGy. The estimated mean cumulative red bone marrow radiation dose score was 42 (range 1–265). After adjustment for age, occupational radiation, and radiotherapy for benign conditions, translocation frequencies significantly increased with increasing red bone marrow dose score with an estimate of 0.007 translocations per 100 CEs per score unit (95% CI, 0.002 to 0.013; P = 0.01). Chromosome damage has been linked with elevated cancer risk, and we found that cumulative radiation exposure from medical X-ray examinations was associated with increased numbers of chromosome translocations.

Stovall, M., Weathers, R., Kasper, C., Smith, S. A., Travis, L., Ron, E. and Kleinerman, R. Dose Reconstruction for Therapeutic and Diagnostic Radiation Exposures: Use in Epidemiological Studies. Radiat. Res. 166, 141–157 (2006). This paper describes methods developed specifically for reconstructing individual organ- and tissue-absorbed dose of radiation from past exposures from medical treatments and procedures for use in epidemiological studies. These methods have evolved over the past three decades and have been applied to a variety of medical exposures including external-beam radiation therapy and brachytherapy for malignant and benign diseases as well as diagnostic examinations. The methods used for estimating absorbed dose to organs in and outside the defined treatment volume generally require archival data collection, abstraction and review, and phantom measurements to simulate past exposure conditions. Three techniques are used to estimate doses from radiation therapy: (1) calculation in three-dimensional mathematical computer models using an extensive database of out-of-beam doses measured in tissue-equivalent materials, (2) measurement in anthropomorphic phantoms constructed of tissue-equivalent material, and (3) calculation using a three-dimensional treatment-planning computer. For diagnostic exposures, doses are estimated from published data and software based on Monte Carlo techniques. We describe and compare these methods of dose estimation and discuss uncertainties in estimated organ doses and potential for future improvement. Seven epidemiological studies are discussed to illustrate the methods.

Lubin, J. H., Schafer, D. W., Ron, E., Stovall, M. and Carroll, R. J. A Reanalysis of Thyroid Neoplasms in the Israeli Tinea Capitis Study Accounting for Dose Uncertainties. Radiat. Res. 161, 359–368 (2004). In the 1940s and 1950s, children in Israel were treated for tinea capitis by irradiation to the scalp to induce epilation. Follow-up studies of these patients and of other radiation- exposed populations show an increased risk of malignant and benign thyroid tumors. Those analyses, however, assume that thyroid dose for individuals is estimated precisely without error. Failure to account for uncertainties in dosimetry may affect standard errors and bias dose–response estimates. For the Israeli tinea capitis study, we discuss sources of uncertainties and adjust dosimetry for uncertainties in the prediction of true dose from X-ray treatment parameters. We also account for missing ages at exposure for patients with multiple X-ray treatments, since only ages at first treatment are known, and for missing data on treatment center, which investigators use to define exposure. Our reanalysis of the dose response for thyroid cancer and benign thyroid tumors indicates that uncertainties in dosimetry have minimal effects on dose–response estimation and for inference on the modifying effects of age at first exposure, time since exposure, and other factors. Since the components of the dose uncertainties we describe are likely to be present in other epidemiological studies of patients treated with radiation, our analysis may provide a model for considering the potential role of these uncertainties.

Sigurdson, A. J., Stovall, M., Kleinerman, R. A., Maor, M. H., Taylor, M. E., Boice, J. D., Jr. and Ron, E. Feasibility of Assessing the Carcinogenicity of Neutrons among Neutron Therapy Patients. Radiat. Res. 157, 483–489 (2002). Nuclear workers, oil well loggers, astronauts, air flight crews, and frequent fliers can be exposed to low doses of neutrons, but the long-term human health consequences of neutron exposure are unknown. While few of these exposed populations are suitable for studying the effects of neutron exposure, patients treated with neutron-beam therapy might be a source of information. To assess the feasibility of conducting a multi-center international study of the late effects of neutron therapy, we surveyed 23 cancer centers that had used neutron beam therapy. For the 17 responding institutions, only 25% of the patients treated with neutrons (2,855 of 11,191) were alive more than 2 years after treatment. In a two-center U.S. pilot study of 484 neutron-treated cancer patients, we assessed the feasibility of obtaining radiotherapy records, cancer incidence and other follow-up data, and of estimating patient organ doses. Patients were treated with 42 MeV neutrons between 1972 and 1989. Applying a clinical equivalence factor of 3.2 for neutrons, total average organ doses outside the treatment beam ranged from 0.14 to 0.29 Gy for thyroid, 0.40 to 2.50 Gy for breast, 0.63 to 2.35 Gy for kidney, and 1.12 to 1.76 Gy for active bone marrow depending upon the primary cancer treatment site. We successfully traced 97% of the patients, but we found that patient survival was poor and that chemotherapy was not confirmable in a quarter of the patients. Based on our findings from the international survey and the feasibility study, we conclude that a large investigation could detect a fivefold or higher leukemia risk, but would be inadequate to evaluate the risk of solid cancers with long latent periods and therefore would likely not be informative with respect to neutron-related cancer risk in humans.

Epidemiological studies provide the primary data on the carcinogenic effects of radiation in humans. Much of what is known has come from studies of the atomic bomb survivors, and to a lesser extent from patients receiving radiotherapy. These studies demonstrate that exposure to moderate to high doses of radiation increases the risk of cancer in most organs. For all solid cancers combined, cancers of the thyroid, breast and lung, and leukemia, risk estimates are fairly precise, and associations have been found at relatively low doses (<0.2 Gy). Associations between radiation and cancers of the salivary glands, stomach, colon, bladder, ovary, central nervous system and skin have also been reported, but the relationships are not as well quantified. Associations between radiation and cancers of the liver and esophagus, and to a lesser extent multiple myeloma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, have been reported in a few studies, but results are inconsistent. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia, Hodgkin's disease, and cancers of the pancreas, prostate, testis and cervix have rarely been linked to radiation exposure. A linear no-threshold model adequately describes the dose-response relationship for solid cancers, although at extremely high doses the risk appears to flatten out. Because few populations have been followed until the end of life, the temporal patterns of risk are not completely known. An increased risk, however, does continue for several decades. In contrast, radiation-related leukemias begin to occur shortly (2-3 years) after exposure and, at least in the A-bomb survivors, a linear-quadratic dose response seems to fit the data better than a pure linear model. Radiation does not act entirely in isolation. It can interact with other carcinogens, e.g. tobacco or chemotherapeutic agents, and with host factors such as age at exposure, gender or reproductive history. Interactions with medical interventions or with certain heritable mutations have also been suggested. While the studies of high-dose exposures are essential for understanding the overall biological consequences of radiation exposure, the public is more concerned about the long-term health effects from protracted exposures at low doses. Unfortunately, the inherent limitations of epidemiology make it extremely difficult to directly quantify health risks from these exposures. While most epidemiological data are compatible with linear extrapolations from exposures at high doses or high dose rates, they cannot entirely exclude other possibilities. As the field of epidemiology advances, understanding more about the health effects of prolonged and low-dose exposures will be the next challenge.

We have investigated the dose-response relationships for the incidence of salivary gland tumors in a cohort of 2945 individuals who were irradiated as children between 1939-1962. Most of the patients were treated to reduce the size of their tonsils and adenoids. The mean dose to the salivary glands (±SD) was 4.2 ± 1.7 Gy. Eighty-nine patients developed 91 salivary gland neoplasms; 22 had single malignancies, 64 had single benign neoplasms, 2 developed two separate benign neoplasms, and 1 developed a single neoplasm but did not have surgery. The majority (81 of 89) of the patients developed neoplasms in the parotid glands. Mucoepidermoid carcinomas were the most common malignancy and mixed (pleomorphic) adenomas were the most common benign neoplasm. For all salivary gland tumors, the excess relative risk per gray (ERR/Gy) was 0.82; however, the 95% confidence interval was wide (0.04, upper bound indeterminate). The trend was determined principally by benign tumors, as there was no dose-response relationship for salivary gland cancer, although there were too few cases to draw definitive conclusions. Overall, our study provides support for an association between salivary gland tumors and radiation exposure. Although most salivary gland tumors are benign and are usually readily detected, they may cause morbidity, and people who have been irradiated in the area should be monitored for their occurrence.

The thyroid gland of children is especially vulnerable to the carcinogenic action of ionizing radiation. To provide insights into various modifying influences on risk, seven major studies with organ doses to individual subjects were evaluated. Five cohort studies (atomic bomb survivors, children treated for tinea capitis, two studies of children irradiated for enlarged tonsils, and infants irradiated for an enlarged thymus gland) and two case-control studies (patients with cervical cancer and childhood cancer) were studied. The combined studies include almost 120,000 people (approximately 58,000 exposed to a wide range of doses and 61,000 nonexposed subjects), nearly 700 thyroid cancers and 3,000,000 person years of follow-up. For persons exposed to radiation before age 15 years, linearity best described the dose response, even down to 0.10 Gy. At the highest doses (>10 Gy), associated with cancer therapy, there appeared to be a decrease or leveling of risk. For childhood exposures, the pooled excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) was 7.7 (95% CI = 2.1, 28.7) and the excess absolute risk per <tex-math>$10^{4}\ {\rm PY}\ {\rm Gy}\ ({\rm EAR}/10^{4}\ {\rm PY}\ {\rm Gy})$</tex-math> was 4.4 (95% CI = 1.9, 10.1). The attributable risk percent (AR%) at 1 Gy was 88%. However, these summary estimates were affected strongly by age at exposure even within this limited age range. The ERR was greater (P = 0.07) for females than males, but the findings from the individual studies were not consistent. The EAR was higher among women, reflecting their higher rate of naturally occurring thyroid cancer. The distribution of ERR over time followed neither a simple multiplicative nor an additive pattern in relation to background occurrence. Only two cases were seen within 5 years of exposure. The ERR began to decline about 30 years after exposure but was still elevated at 40 years. Risk also decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure, with little risk apparent after age 20 years. Based on limited data, there was a suggestion that spreading dose over time (from a few days to >1 year) may lower risk, possibly due to the opportunity for cellular repair mechanisms to operate. The thyroid gland in children has one of the highest risk coefficients of any organ and is the only tissue with convincing evidence for risk at about 0.10 Gy.