Likhtarov, I., Kovgan, L., Vavilov, S., Chepurny, M., Ron, E., Lubin, J., Bouville, A., Tronko, N., Bogdanova, T., Gulak, L., Zablotska, L. and Howe, G. Post-Chornobyl Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: Risk Analysis. Radiat. Res. 166, 375–386 (2006). On April 26, 1986, the worst nuclear reactor accident to date occurred at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) power plant in Ukraine. Millions of people in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were exposed to radioactive nuclides, especially 131 I. Since then, research has been conducted on various subgroups of the exposed population, and it has been demonstrated that the large increase in thyroid cancer is related to the 131 I exposure. However, because of study limitations, quantified risk estimates are limited, and there remains a need for additional information. We conducted an ecological study to investigate the relationship between 131 I thyroid dose and the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in three highly contaminated oblasts in Northern Ukraine. The study population is comprised of 301,907 persons who were between the ages of 1 and 18 at the time of the Chornobyl accident and were living in 1,293 rural settlements in the three study oblasts. Twenty-four percent of the study population had individual thyroid dose estimates and the other 76% had “individualized” estimates of thyroid dose based on direct thyroid measurements taken from a person of the same age and gender living in the same or nearby settlement. Cases include 232 thyroid cancers diagnosed from January 1990 through December 2001, and all were confirmed histologically. Dose–response analyses took into account differences in the rate of ultrasound examinations conducted in the three study oblasts. The estimated excess relative risk per gray was 8.0 (95% CI = 4.6–15) and the excess absolute risk per 10,000 person-year gray was estimated to be 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2–1.9). In broad terms, these estimates are compatible with results of other studies from the contaminated areas, as well as studies of external radiation exposure.
Jacob, P., Bogdanova, T. I., Buglova, E., Chepurniy, M., Demidchik, Y., Gavrilin, Y., Kenigsberg, J., Meckbach, R., Schotola, C., Shinkarev, S., Tronko, M. D., Ulanovsky, A., Vavilov, S. and Walsh, L. Thyroid Cancer Risk in Areas of Ukraine and Belarus Affected by the Chernobyl Accident. Radiat. Res. 165, 1–8 (2006). The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the 131 I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968– 1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990–2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 10 4 PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was −0.145 (95% CI: −0.171; −0.119) cases per 10 4 PY-Gy 2 . The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy −1 ; for the quadratic coefficient, it was −1.03 (95% CI: −1.46; −0.60) Gy −2 . The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.
Likhtarov, I., Kovgan, L., Vavilov, S., Chepurny, M., Bouville, A., Luckyanov, N., Jacob, P., Voillequé, P. and Voigt, G. Post-Chornobyl Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine. Report 1: Estimation of Thyroid Doses. Radiat. Res. 163, 125–136 (2005). About 1.8 EBq of 131 I was released into the atmosphere during the Chornobyl accident that occurred in Ukraine on April 26, 1986. More than 10% of this activity was deposited on the territory of Ukraine. Beginning 4–5 years after the accident, an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among children, believed to be caused in part by exposure to 131 I, has been observed in different regions of Ukraine. A three-level system of thyroid dose estimation was developed for the reconstruction of thyroid doses from 131 I for the entire population of Ukrainian children aged 1 to 18 at the time of accident: (1) At the first level, individual doses were estimated for the approximately 99,000 children and adolescents with direct measurements of radioactivity in the thyroid (so-called direct thyroid measurements) performed in May–June of 1986; (2) at the second level, group doses by year of age and by gender were estimated for the population of 748 localities (with 208,400 children aged 1–18 in 1986) where direct thyroid measurements of good quality were performed on some of the residents; and (3) at the third level, group doses by age and by gender were estimated for the population of the localities where no thyroid measurements were made in 1986. The third-level doses were then aggregated over the population of each oblast. Data, models and procedures required for each level of thyroid dose estimation are described in the paper. At the first level, individual doses were found to range up to 27,000 mGy, with geometric and arithmetic means of 100 and 300 mGy, respectively. At the second level, group doses were found to be highest for the younger children (aged 1 to 4 years); doses for the older children (aged 16 to 18 years) were 3.5 times smaller. At the third level, average population-weighted doses were found to exceed 35 mGy in the five northern oblasts closer to the Chornobyl reactor site; to be in the 14- to 34-mGy range in seven other oblasts, Kyiv city and Crimea; and to be less than 13 mGy in all other oblasts.