Predictive species distribution models and environmental niche evaluation have become useful techniques in conservation biogeography and are increasingly used as prediction tools to identify priority conservation areas for focal species. Multiple hypotheses and paradigms were proposed to explain the variation seen in geographical range sizes among species. Our hypothesis was that in a monophyletic group of 7 Campylorhynchus species, those with a broad climatic niche would persist over a wide geographic range while species with a narrow climatic niche, such as C. yucatanicus, would be restricted to a smaller geographic range. To test this hypothesis, we modeled potential distributions using the MaxEnt algorithm and estimated the climatic niche of 7 species included in the monophyletic group of Campylorhynchus (Troglodytidae). To compare the ecological niches of these 7 species, we plotted the occurrence density for each species with combinations of environmental conditions and then identified the first 2 components using a principal component analysis. In general, the most important variables predicting species presence were rainfall seasonality and minimum temperature during the coldest month. The climatic niches for these 7 species were relatively segregated throughout the environmental space. When compared with related species, C. yucatanicus had the narrowest niche width and lowest niche similarity and overlap index, which could explain the restricted distribution for this species. Given the restricted range of C. yucatanicus within the Yucatan Peninsula, the species is highly vulnerable to small disturbances, current local threats (e.g., habitat alterations due to urbanization), and global threats (e.g., climate change). We therefore recommend increased national and international protection for C. yucatanicus and that it be listed as globally threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Received 22 June 2016. Accepted 9 June 2017.

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